Deterrence vs Element Of Surprise
There is only one way to GUARANTEE you will win a gunfight: avoid it.
Yeah, I get it…
Everyone wants to be a hero, tough guy, get the girl, you know – movie stuff. (Remember: John Wayne died in “The Shootist”. Clint Eastwood died in “Gran Torino” – just saying…sorry if that’s a spoiler!)
Here’s the ugly truth: You could die. You could get permanently disabled.
You could kill the other guy, walk away without a scratch and then “lose your life” and everything you have ever earned and saved defending yourself in a frivolous civil suit. Welcome to the Land of the Free Lawyers & Litigation!
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What follows is my opinion (you’re entitled to yours, this is mine).
Over the last 6 months we have sold A LOT of this one particular sticker, our most popular. When we advertise on facebook the vast majority of the comments I read fall into one of two categories:
- LOVE IT! (huge majority)
- Don’t give up the “element of surprise” (decent size minority)
I hear the same thing with regard to T-Shirts and other products as well.
Here’s the deal…
If you post a warning sign indicating that you are armed (or that you have an alarm), not everyone will be deterred – yet some will be! And some beats none every day of the week in my book. (Just look how many radar detectors are sold despite their inability to prevent EVERY speeding ticket!)
In fact, 3 of 5 felons have indicated that they want NOTHING TO DO with an ARMED victim (external link). And 57% of criminals are more afraid of running into an armed citizen than the police (1). To wit, this story just broke of a single License To Carry Texan intentionally walked in on an armed robbery, told THREE robbers to put their guns down – and THEY DID!
Is A Sign or Open Firearm A Deterrent?
When I searched the web I did not find near as much material on alarm sign deterrence as I expected, but what I did find supported the position that, again, an alarm sign WILL send at least a percentage of criminals down the road to easier pickings. Not every Police department will agree I’m sure (some of them don’t want you armed either, though), yet all I have spoken to suggest having the sign.
Open Carry vs Concealed Carry
Without getting into the full debate of open vs concealed carry – that’s a personal matter that will include a lot of personal circumstances including the laws where you live.
Concealed carry maintains the “element of surprise”.
Open carry can act as a deterrent (are you more afraid of a London “Bobbie” armed with a nightstick or one of their “Armed Police”?) and also allows for a speedier, safer draw (most likely anyway). More ND’s (negligent discharges) happen with a concealed draw than open holster, it only stands to reason as clothing is much more likely to get in the way with a draw from concealment.
The first time I remember going to a gun store in a bigger city (read: higher crime area) was years ago when living in Ill-inois. We packed the family in the van and made the trek to RGuns in Carpentersville, IL. I was surprised to see the employees open carrying, especially in Ill-inois. That’s when I learned that if you are on your own business premises, the State’s then draconian anti-2A stance was blocked at your door.
Why did they carry open?
- Deterrent
- Cleaner, faster draw
They were absolutely not concerned about losing “the element of surprise”.
Same goes with proprietors in the Gold shops I have visited in recent years – no attempt to hide the guns on the belts of every employee. They consider that visible handgun to be a DETERRENT to anyone getting any shady ideas…
Armed Teachers in Schools
Why do you suppose some schools are not only training and arming their teachers but also posting signs like you see at the right?
Deterrent.
They don’t want their teachers to WIN A GUNFIGHT, then want criminals to GO SOMEWHERE ELSE!
Will it deter everyone? Probably not, but remember that most of these mass shootings occur in KNOWN or POSTED GUN FREE ZONES. These jokers might be crazy, but they aren’t all STUPID!
Police Cars
Which is more of a deterrent, a marked police cruiser or an unmarked one? Obviously the former as folks who are not observant or busy texting while they drive don’t even recognize an unmarked car until it’s too late.
One thing I noticed in Las Vegas was the strategic placement of a couple of marked squad cars with heavily tinted glass. You couldn’t tell until you got real close, or noticed that over a few days they never moved, that they were unoccupied and likely stripped of any gear inside.
In fact, if the paint and decals had not been faded I might have been fooled for a few hours. But again, not everyone notices those things!
I also happen to drive I-35 quite a bit, and while enjoying the 75 mph speed limit on the Kansas Tollway there is one particular rest stop that has had the same two unmarked (but replete with spotlights and antennas – in addition to their distinctive Crown Vic appearance – to give them away) parked in the same spot, front and center, for over a year.
A deterrent? I can’t think of any other reason…
Governments
Do governments try not to “give up the element of surprise” or do they chose to “display strength” at every opportunity?
- US Navy patrolling the Strait of Hormuz
- US President immediately sends a(nother) carrier if trouble brewing
- Russia/China/North Korea parading in the streets with soldiers, tanks, guns
- Air Forces of many countries anxious to show off their best fighters at air shows; yes, some of those are for sale but otherwise to “show off” and display readiness and abilities
Element Of Surprise
The element of surprise is great to win a gunfight if you are attacking a superior force, perhaps at port on an early Sunday morning in time of peace. Certainly the element of surprise is great when dry gulching a superior opponent.
Likely as not, though, the element of surprise belongs to the bad guy in a home invasion. Are you wearing your gun? Are you in the shower or asleep in bed? Otherwise engaged with the other half? Or maybe just enjoying an evening meal.
At times like that I want a deterrent to send them down the road to someone else. Sure, that sounds bad to some, yet we have a duty to protect our families and even our homes.
If a deterrent like this reduces the chance 10%, 20%, maybe 60% (3 of 5 felons), then I’ll put up the sign. Chances are if the bad guy is packing he’s going to be charging in with gun in hand and not in holster anyway. Your sign isn’t taking away any “element of surprise” from him. He has the advantage, not you.
Does that mean he will win or that you shouldn’t fight back? Of course not. You’re smarter, likely better trained. Yet this is life & death, you and yours. The only 100% chance to win a gunfight is when you avoid it in the first place.
To Be Continued…
(1) U.S., Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, “The Armed Criminal in America: A Survey of Incarcerated Felons,” Research Report (July 1985): 27
I would like to see somebody bring back the sign…..NEVER MIND THE DOG, BEWARE OF THE OWNER….I had one once, and people remember that one.
You can still get those, check here: http://amzn.to/2diEQuI
I would rather open carry. It only makes sense to me. Plus, I’m a woman and our clothing doesn’t make for good concealed carry and carrying a gun in your purse, on your shoulder is just plain stupid. I have an alarm sign and gun signs on my property. I live way out alone. Have lots of deliveries. No one has bothered me yet. One delivery guy asked me if I really knew how to use that thing….I said, what do you think? He nodded and left. Signs are a very good deterrent. So is open-carry. My 2 cents.
Sounds good!